TiO₂ Price Forecast: Tightening Ilmenite Supply and Peak-Season Demand May Support a Rebound (2026-08-14 to 2026-08-21)

Buyer Summary: The China TiO₂ Market remained weak this week, with downstream demand still subdued and selected sulfate-process quotations moving lower. However, TiO₂ prices are already near low levels, domestic ilmenite inventories continue to decline, and sulfuric acid prices are showing increasing regional differentiation. With the traditional September–October peak season approaching, stronger restocking demand could improve market sentiment and support a price rebound.

1. Titanium Dioxide (TiO₂) Market Analysis

• The TiO₂ market remained weak during the week. Selected sulfate-process producers lowered quotations on August 18, but prices subsequently stabilized through August 20.
• Downstream purchasing remained cautious and market supply was still sufficient, keeping competition relatively intense. Chloride-process TiO₂ quotations were comparatively firmer.
• Most transactions continued to be negotiated on a case-by-case basis, while the market closely monitored pricing policies from leading manufacturers.
• With sulfate-process TiO₂ prices already close to production cost levels and producer margins under pressure, the room for another broad round of substantial price reductions appears increasingly limited.

Product	Previous Week (30th Week, 2026)	Current Week (31st Week, 2026)	Weekly Change
Anatase	127	127	0
Rutile	129	129	0

Price Index Methodology: The Price Index is calculated based on the average prices of the top 10 producers in China, with the base value set at 100 as of January 1, 2026.

2. Titanium Dioxide Pigment Market Trends

• Domestic ilmenite supply continued to tighten. Panzhihua prices remained broadly stable, but low beneficiation operating rates, tight intermediate ore supply, and continuously declining inventories reduced previous supply pressure.
• Downstream inquiries increased during the second half of the week, while some miners developed stronger expectations for firmer prices. Imported ilmenite quotations remained broadly stable as market participants stayed cautious.
• The domestic sulfuric acid market remained weak overall, but regional price trends became increasingly differentiated. Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Guangxi, Yunnan and other markets experienced downward adjustments during the week as supply increased and downstream purchasing remained cautious.
• At the same time, tighter regional supply supported firmer prices in selected markets such as Fujian. By August 20, 98% smelting acid delivered in Yunnan was approximately USD 200–209/ton, while Guizhou was around USD 244–261/ton.
• By the end of the week, sulfuric acid showed signs of moving from broad weakness toward regional stabilization. Stable phosphate fertilizer demand and relatively high production costs for sulfur-based and ore-based acid continued to provide some support to the market.
• As ilmenite supply tightens and sulfuric acid downside becomes more regionally limited, the reduction in TiO₂ production costs may also slow, providing stronger support near current TiO₂ price levels.

3. Market Forecast

• The near-term TiO₂ Price Forecast remains weak but increasingly stable. Supplier-specific adjustments may continue, but another broad and substantial price decline appears less likely.
• Tightening domestic ilmenite supply, declining inventories, and stronger miner price expectations could gradually rebuild upstream cost support for TiO₂ producers.
• Sulfuric acid is likely to remain regionally differentiated. Weak downstream chemical demand may continue to pressure selected markets, while high production costs and fertilizer demand could limit further declines elsewhere.
• September–October is traditionally a stronger demand period for the TiO₂ market. If downstream buyers begin replenishing inventories after an extended period of cautious purchasing, the supply-demand balance could improve relatively quickly.
• Under this scenario, TiO₂ prices could move from current low-level consolidation toward a gradual rebound, although the timing and strength of any recovery will depend on actual demand and leading manufacturers’ pricing policies.
• For buyers, current quotations still provide negotiation opportunities, but waiting for substantially lower prices may carry increasing risk as upstream supply tightens and the traditional peak season approaches.

Market Notice: Due to high market volatility, prices are subject to frequent adjustments. For the most accurate and up-to-the-minute data, please consult info@tinoxchem.de.

• For more reports: TiO₂ Market Report