TiO₂ Price Forecast: Weak Demand and Inventory Pressure Keep Prices Under Pressure (2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23)

TiO₂ Price Forecast: Weak Demand and Inventory Pressure Keep Prices Under Pressure

Buyer Summary: The China TiO₂ Market remained under pressure this week as weak downstream demand, high operating rates, and limited new-order growth widened the gap between producer quotations and actual transaction prices. While existing export orders continue to support some manufacturers, inventory pressure is increasing at others. Lower domestic ilmenite prices provide partial cost relief, while divergent sulfuric acid trends offer limited overall cost support. Japan's anti-dumping investigation and the UK's proposed trade measures have added uncertainty to export markets. Near-term TiO₂ prices are expected to remain weak, with further modest downside possible.

1. Titanium Dioxide (TiO₂) Market Analysis

• Downstream demand from coatings, plastics, and construction-related sectors remained weak. Buyers continued to prioritize essential purchases, inquiries were limited, and new orders were generally small and negotiated on a case-by-case basis.
• Industry operating rates remained relatively high. Major producers and chloride-process manufacturers continued to benefit from existing orders and export demand, while some smaller manufacturers faced declining order backlogs and increasing shipment pressure. Inventory conditions varied among producers, with some major manufacturers also carrying elevated stocks.
• Although export orders continue to provide an important source of support, increasing trade-policy uncertainty may complicate future sales to overseas markets. The combination of weak domestic demand and potential export restrictions is limiting the market's recovery prospects.

Product	Previous Week (38th Week, 2026)	Current Week (39th Week, 2026)	Weekly Change
Anatase	129	129	0
Rutile	131	131	0

Price Index Methodology: The Price Index is calculated based on the average prices of the top 10 producers in China, with the base value set at 100 as of January 1, 2026.

2. Titanium Dioxide Pigment Market Trends

• Raw material costs: Domestic ilmenite prices continued to weaken as supply remained relatively ample and downstream TiO₂ producers maintained strict cost controls. Panzhihua 46% ilmenite traded at approximately USD 163–168/ton, while 47% material was around USD 171–182/ton. Imported ilmenite also remained under pressure from high port inventories and sluggish purchasing. These conditions provide some cost relief for TiO₂ producers.
• Sulfuric acid: Market conditions diverged by region. Smelting acid prices strengthened in some areas amid plant maintenance and lower inventories, while sulfur-based and ore-based acid prices eased. Overall, sulfuric acid offered mixed cost signals rather than a clear catalyst for TiO₂ price movements.
• Export risks: Japan initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese rutile TiO₂ on October 16, adding to concerns over the UK's proposed anti-dumping measures. These developments could increase uncertainty for Chinese exporters and affect future export flows if additional trade restrictions are implemented.
• New anatase capacity: Shengwei Group's 220,000 MT/year anatase TiO₂ project in Fuquan has reached full production and stable supply. The expansion strengthens the company's position in the anatase segment but also adds to competitive pressure amid weak downstream demand.
• Longer-term capacity development: Guangdong Hengti New Materials' integrated titanium-based materials project has completed filing for its first phase, which includes a planned 100,000 MT/year chloride-process TiO₂ production line. With the project scheduled to begin in 2027, it represents a longer-term capacity development rather than an immediate change in market supply.

3. Market Forecast

• The near-term TiO₂ Price Forecast remains weak. Limited downstream demand, sluggish new-order growth, and increasing negotiation room are likely to keep market prices under pressure, with further modest declines possible.
• Existing orders and export demand should continue to support selected major manufacturers. However, producers with weaker order backlogs or higher inventories may face greater pressure to offer competitive prices to secure new business.
• Lower domestic ilmenite prices are easing some production cost pressure, while divergent sulfuric acid trends provide no clear overall cost direction. Raw material conditions are therefore unlikely to generate a strong upward price catalyst in the immediate term.
• Japan's investigation and the UK's proposed anti-dumping measures introduce additional uncertainty for Chinese rutile TiO₂ exports. The final impact will depend on the outcomes of the respective trade proceedings and how exporters adjust their market strategies.
• Capacity expansion in the anatase segment may intensify competition if demand remains weak. Meanwhile, planned chloride-process capacity additions will be more relevant to the longer-term supply outlook than to immediate market conditions.
• For buyers, a cautious, demand-led procurement strategy remains appropriate. Without a meaningful recovery in downstream consumption, the market is likely to remain weak, with producers competing more actively for new orders and actual transaction prices potentially moving below nominal quotations.

Market Notice: Due to high market volatility, prices are subject to frequent adjustments. For the most accurate and up-to-the-minute data, please consult info@tinoxchem.de.

• For more reports: TiO₂ Market Report